2016 continued the positive trend in housing, in both macro and micro markets. Interest rates continued to stay at near record lows. Here is what to watch for in 2017:
- Corporate Profits are up 6.7% (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-profits)
- Consumer Confidence Indes continues to rise (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/u-s-consumer-confidence-index-increased-to-113-7-in-december)
- Retail and Auto Sales are up (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/us-retail-sales-dec-2016.html)
- DOW close to 20,000 mark, may cause a need to diversify into other investment opportunities.
- GDP expected to increase. (http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2017/01/01/wsjs-daily-shot-financial-and-economic-forecasts-for-2017/)
The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike in December of 2016, and hinted at more hikes to come in 2017. Though, many analyst predict rates to stay under 5%. Any increase in interest rates can reduce a buyers purchasing power.
If video is the new photography, then virtual reality might be the new video. Sir.com is leading the industry and now has the ability to embed Matterport into the listing page (not just a link. http://www.sothebysrealty.com/extraordinary-living-blog/sothebys-international-realty-global-website-integrates-new-technologies/)
Economics and Demographics:
As most areas have recovered from the housing crash, we are starting to see relatively “normal” sales metrics, and foreclosure rates. While inventory remains a challenge to supply, demand I think will follow more traditional economic metrics. Tampa Bay is expected to see a population increase over the next few years, and many of the Baby Boomer generation are coming into retirement, and as such is expected to be looking for homes and second homes in the area. The local job market remains strong in Tampa Bay, which should also help housing. The major of Tampa has been vocal about brining high income jobs to the area, which would also boost the luxury housing market.
The Trump Effect???
The President Elect has mentioned rolling back some or all of the Dodd Frank Act, and other regulations. This could have an effect on lending, but to what extent is still unknown and hard to predict.
New construction will continue to make an impact on housing. It may give much-needed help to buyer’s inventory levels, but in the short-term, could hold back some locations from appreciating at similar rates as other areas, as older homes will be forced to compete with the new construction.
We are now roughly 20-25 years into the internet era, and Zillow has reached their 10 year anniversary. However, FSBO rates are still at historical lows, 8-10% depending on the source. It continues to remain true that a vast majority of people prefer and need a professional, knowledgable advocate for what is typically the largest purchase or sale of their life.